Un precio del petróleo elevado, impulsado por un rápido incremento de la demanda, y un estancamiento o incluso un retroceso de la producción, podrían hacer descarrilar la recuperación, agregó.
Según el economista jefe de la organización internacional, que representa los intereses de los países industrializados, numerosos gobiernos no parecen darse cuenta de que las reservas de petróleo disminuyen más rápidamente de lo previsto y que la producción global llegará a su punto más alto en unos diez años, es decir una década antes de lo que se esperaba hasta ahora.
"Un día el petróleo se agotará. No será ni hoy ni mañana pero un día se agotará y tenemos que abandonar el petróleo antes de que nos abandone él, y debemos prepararnos para ese día", subrayó Fatih Birol al diario británico.
"Cuanto antes empecemos mejor, porque todo nuestro sistema económico y social está basado en el petróleo. O sea que cambiar requerirá mucho tiempo y mucho dinero, y tenemos que tomarnos este problema muy en serio", continuó.
Una estimación efectuada sobre más de 800 de los principales campos de petróleo del mundo demostró que la mayoría ya han alcanzado sus máximos de producción y que sus reservas disminuyen dos veces más rápidamente de lo que se había calculado hace dos años.
La AIE estimó a finales de junio que la demanda mundial de petróleo iba a aumentar un 0,6% anual entre 2008 y 2014, en su informe prospectivo anual a medio plazo, y estimó que el riesgo de una ‘crisis petrolera’ no aparecería antes de 2013/2014.
En caso de crecimiento económico menor (un 3% a partir de 2012), la organización subrayaba que este riesgo estaba incluso completamente excluido en el periodo 2008-2014.
El petróleo cerró el lunes con un alza de más de un 3 por ciento, por encima de los 71 dólares el barril, debido a que positivos datos industriales en Estados Unidos y China alentaban las esperanzas de una recuperación económica y una mayor demanda de energía.
El crudo estadounidense cerraron con un alza de 2,13 dólares, a 71,58 dólares el barril, su mejor cierre desde el 12 de junio.
En tanto, el petróleo Brent en Londres avanzó 1,85 dólares, a 73,55 dólares, su mejor nivel desde el 14 de octubre pasado.
Mantenimientos anuales programados en el Mar del Norte e interrupciones en el suministro por ataques rebeldes en Nigeria han dado soporte al Brent.
El índice de producción manufacturera de Estados Unidos continuó su contracción en julio, aunque a un ritmo más lento que en junio y a una tasa menor a la esperada, según cifras entregadas el lunes por el Instituto de Gerencia y Abastecimiento (ISM por sus siglas en inglés).
El índice de actividad industrial nacional de julio subió a 48,9 desde 44,8 en junio, la mayor lectura desde agosto del 2008.
En China, un aumento en el gasto doméstico alentó la actividad manufacturera, con el índice industrial oficial subiendo a un máximo de un año de 52,8 en julio desde 51,8 en junio.
"El débil dólar y el dato de manufacturas son grandes impulsores para los mercados de energía hoy", dijo Phil Flynn, analista de PFGBest Research en Chicago.
Los analistas dijeron que un débil dólar, que retrocedió el lunes para tocar su punto más bajo del año contra una canasta de monedas en medio de un creciente apetito por activos de riesgo, podría brindar apoyo a los precios del petróleo.
Las acciones mundiales eran apuntaladas por las noticias, con Wall Street abriendo con alzas y el índice S&P 500 avanzando brevemente por encima del nivel de 1.000 puntos a su máximo en 9 meses.
Las acciones europeas tocaron su mayor nivel del 2009, lideradas por títulos bancarios.
En tanto, las existencias de crudo chinas, incluyendo las reservas estratégicas estatales como los comerciales, se redujeron un 2,7 por ciento con respecto al mes anterior, a 37,7 millones de toneladas a fines de junio, según reportó el lunes la agencia de noticias oficial Xinhua.
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IEA official warns of shrinking oil supplies
A disastrous energy crunch is looming because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading economist warned Monday.
Fatih Birol, chief economist with Paris-based International Energy Agency, said such an "oil crunch" within the next five years could jeopardise recovery from the global recession.
Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could derail the recovery, Birol said in an interview with The Independent newspaper.
Birol said many governments appeared unaware that oil is running out faster than previously predicted, with global production likely to peak in about 10 years — at least a decade earlier than most had estimated.
"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day," Birol said.
"The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously," he said.
An assessment of over 800 of the world’s major oil fields has found most of the biggest ones have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated two years ago.
Birol also warned that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil — mostly in the Middle East — would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.
"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 percent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future," he said.
The IEA, the energy monitoring and policy arm of the 30-nation Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, said last month that signs of a strong rally in global economic growth and oil demand were fading.
The IEA added however in its latest monthly report that there could be a dramatic turnaround for demand next year.
Oil jumps on weak dollar, manufacturing strength
Oil and natural gas prices rose sharply Monday on the weakening dollar and on new signs of life from manufacturers that suggest the recession may be loosening its grip.
Benchmark crude for September delivery rose 3 percent, or $2.13 to settle at $71.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the third straight day of substantial increases on the energy futures markets and the first time in a month that crude traded above $70.
Retail gasoline prices rose overnight yet again.
Natural gas, a major source of power generation, spiked by more than 9 percent on a day when both China and the United States reported stronger manufacturing activity.
Production from U.S. manufacturers jumped to its highest level in more than two years last month with new orders to restock businesses that had cleared inventories as the economy slumped.
The decline in manufacturing has been slowing since December and officials with the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said Monday that signs of growth in the sector could emerge as early as next month.
Manufacturing in China expanded at its fastest clip in a year, according to a survey by Hong Kong brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.
Still, crude has been rising for the past several weeks on the downward trend for the U.S. dollar.
The dollar index reached its lowest point since September against the euro on Monday.
Money floods into equities markets when the dollar falls because products like crude are priced in the U.S currency. Oil can be used as a hedge against inflation and it also becomes cheaper when the dollar falls.
Still, energy experts believe the price of oil and natural gas may be higher than they should be right now.
A barrel of crude reached as high as $72.20 in midday trading, a price some believe will give way soon.
Oil prices seesawed last week before surging Thursday and Friday as investors bet that crude demand, which has been tepid this summer, will eventually pick up as the economy improves.
Prices at the pump also moved higher, adding 1.1 cents overnight to $2.549 a gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. While gas was closer to $4 than $3 per gallon at this time year, prices have been rising daily since July 22, and are up a nickel since last week.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery rose 5.67 cents to settle at $2.0693 a gallon and heating oil gained 3.88 cents to settle at $1.8713. Natural gas for August delivery jumped 37.8 cents to settle at $4.031 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude prices rose $1.85 to settle at $73.55 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
